A STUDY ON MORTALITY RATE FOR INFANT IN PAKISTAN: AN APPLICATION OF BIOSTATISTICS
JAMAL ABDUL NASIR *
Department of Statistics, GC University Lahore, Pakistan.
CHRISTOPHE CHESNEAU
Department of Mathematics, LMNO, University of Caen, Caen 14032, France.
MUHAMMAD IMRAN
CRS, Lodhran, Pakistan.
FARRUKH JAMAL
Department of Statistics, The Islamia University Bahawalpur, Pakistan.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The annual mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) from 1960 to 2017 of Pakistan is the subject of this paper. As a reason, in South Asia, Pakistan contributed the most to childhood mortality, including infant mortality. Despite progress, child mortality has declined globally, but Pakistan is still struggling and far behind the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals. There are several reasons for high childhood mortality, including socioeconomic determinants and lack of effective implementation of health-related policies, particularly in primary health care settings. In the present study, we use stochastic univariate models to uncover the trend of infant mortality by using more than half a century of data from 1960–2017. The secondary data related to the mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) from 1960 to 2017 was extracted from the World Bank Dataset. Descriptive and time series analysis (Box-Jenkins) are applied. The analysis is carried out using the R programming language.
Keywords: Forecast, infant mortality rate in Pakistan, time series model